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20 Oct 2022

AUD/USD: On the back foot below 0.6300 ahead of Australia employment, PBOC

  • AUD/USD holds lower ground after reversing from weekly high and snapping two-day uptrend.
  • Risk-aversion, strong yields underpinned US dollar’s demand amid hawkish Fed bets.
  • Geopolitical, covid fears surrounding China exert additional downside pressure.
  • A corrective bounce can be witnessed on strong Aussie job numbers but bearish trend is likely to prevail.

AUD/USD remains depressed around 0.6270, despite the recent bounce off weekly low, as traders await the key Australia employment report during early Thursday. That said, the Aussie pair printed the first daily loss on turnaround Wednesday amid risk-off mood. However, anxiety ahead of an important data-set for Australia seems to chain the bears of late.

Market’s sentiment soured the previous day as UK-inspired risk-on mood faded after the strong inflation in the leading economies renewed fears of recession amid the central bankers’ aggressive stands despite economic slowdown fears. The price pressures in Britain, Eurozone and Canada were mostly nearly multi-month high and the core numbers, as well as services inflation, were firmer enough to push the central banks towards higher rates.

Also contributing to the risk-aversion wave were headlines concerning China. The dragon nation registered four-month high covid numbers while the US readiness to tie-up with Taiwan to co-produce American weapons, per Nikkei, adds to the Sino-American tussles. Given the Aussie ties with Beijing, any negatives from the world’s second-largest economy weighs on Australia.

It’s worth noting that hawkish Fedspeak ignored mixed housing data from the US while Australia’s Westpac Leading Index also couldn’t impress the AUD/USD pair buyers.

While portraying the mood, the US Treasury yields refreshed the multi-year high and Wall Street closed in the red for the first time in three.

Moving on, Australia’s September month jobs report will precede the monetary policy meeting by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to entertain AUD/USD traders.

Also read: Australian Employment Preview: Near-term relief to the long-lasting pain

Technical analysis

A pullback from the 10-DMA, around 0.6285 by the press time, directs AUD/USD towards support line of the six-week-old bearish channel, close to 0.6060 at the latest.

 

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