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25 Oct 2022

EUR/USD: New unexpectedly bad news needed to keep the channel trending down – SocGen

EUR/USD has been in a very clearly defined downward-sloping channel since February. Unexpected bad news is needed to keep the channel trending down, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, reports.

Is the weather going to break EUR/USD out of its downtrend?

“Warm weather is fuelling (relative) optimism about the energy crisis, even if Germany’s IFO data is deep into recessionary territory and the ECB’s Bank Lending survey shows financing conditions getting tougher.”

“If recession is ‘in the price’ maybe a hawkish ECB message, 75 bps rate hike and plans for mid-23 QT won’t come as a surprise, but still could trigger some short-covering in EUR/USD.”

“Some new unexpectedly bad news would be needed to keep the channel trending down.”

Oct 25, 2022

US: Consumer Confidence Index declines to 102.5 in October

The data published by the Conference Board showed on Tuesday that the Consumer Confidence Index declined to 102.5 in October from 107.8 in September (

The breadth of the USD move will extend its reaches – TDS

The question on most investors' minds is when will the USD peak and what are the catalysts? The USD could reinforce recent gains until the Fed pivots