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25 Oct 2022

USD/CHF dives back below 1.0000 on Fed easing hopes

  • The dollar dives below parity, gives away previous gains.
  • Downbeat US data spur hopes of a slower Fed tightening pace.
  • USD/CHF: Further depreciation below 0.9950 might increase negative pressure.

Greenback’s recovery from the 0.9940 area has been capped at 1.0030 on Tuesday’s US trading session, as the pair gave away gains and retreated to the mid-range of the 0.99s.

The USD tumbles following weak US data

The US dollar is dropping sharply across the board as a set of downbeat US indicators has increased concerns that the Federal Reserve’s fast tightening pace might be damaging economic growth.

US housing prices contracted at a 0.7% pace in August, beyond the -0.3% expected and consumer confidence deteriorated for the second consecutive month in October. On Monday, the S&P PMIs reflected a further contraction in business activity. These figures are putting pressure on the Fed to consider shorter rate hikes in the coming months.

Hopes of Fed easing have boosted risk appetite. US stock markets expanded gains after a lackluster opening and Treasury bond yields dropped sharply. The US dollar, as a result, lost ground across the board.  

USD/CHF: Breach of 0.9950 support might increase negative pressure

The pair is now trading right above the 100-period SMA in the four-hour chart, at 0.9950, below here, bears might increase their pressure, pushing the pair towards  0.9780 (Oct. 4 and 6 lows) and 0.9740 (Sept. 30 low).

On the upside, October 24 high at 1.0035 should be cleared to aim toward 1.0065/75 (October 13 and 14 highs). Confirmation above that level would set the pair at three-year highs, aiming for May 20, 2019 high.

Technical levels to watch

 

 

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