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26 Oct 2022

USD/BRL to test the 30 Aug lows around 5.01 on a clear victory by Bolsonaro – Credit Suisse

Economists at Credit Suisse restate their 5.00-5.50 USD/BRL target range ahead of the final round of presidential elections on 30 October and preview FX implications of different political outcomes.

A Lula victory can produce some degree of local investor disappointment

“A clear victory by President Bolsonaro is likely to be the most constructive for BRL, consistent with a rapid re-test of the 30 Aug lows in USD/BRL around 5.01.” 

“We suspect that any recently re-emerged fears of postelection turbulence would likely be quickly vanquished in the event of a Bolsonaro victory, adding reasons for BRL strength to local investors’ well-documented preference for the incumbent over the opposition candidate.”

“While a Lula victory can produce some degree of local investor disappointment, we also remain of the view that any ensuing rallies in USD/BRL towards the top end of our 5.00-5.50 target range will rapidly attract sellers – as long as the pre-vote promises by Lula about picking an ‘orthodox’ finance minister are realized.”

“We do not have a strong reason to expect a significantly different cabinet choice in the event of a Lula victory, but if this widely held assumption were to falter, the risk of a deeper correction in BRL past 5.50 would increase sharply.”

 

Oct 26, 2022

France Consumer Confidence registered at 82 above expectations (77) in October

France Consumer Confidence registered at 82 above expectations (77) in October
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Oct 26, 2022

FX option expiries for Oct 26 NY cut

FX option expiries for Oct 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 0.9850 750m 0.9900 1.7b 0.9910 1.3b 0
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