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22 Nov 2022

EUR/USD regains the smile and approaches 1.0300

  • EUR/USD leaves behind part of the recent downside.
  • The dollar looks offered amidst firmer risk-on mood.
  • Flash EMU Consumer Confidence is only due later in the session.

The single currency manages to regain some composure and motivates EUR/USD to set aside three sessions in a row with losses on Tuesday.

EUR/USD now focuses on 1.0300

EUR/USD picks up pace after hitting fresh multi-day lows near 1.0220 at the beginning of the week, always on the back of some corrective move in the greenback and a better mood surrounding the risk complex.

The bounce in the pair comes so far in tandem with side-lined German 10-year bund yields, always above the 2.0% mark.

Later in the session, the European Commission will release its advanced gauge of the Consumer Confidence for the current month, whereas across the Atlantic the sole publication will come from the Richmond Fed index and speeches by FOMC’s Mester (Cleveland), George (Kansas City) and Bullard (St. Louis).

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD partially reverses three daily drops in a row and regains some balance on the back of the offered bias in the greenback on Tuesday.

In the meantime, the European currency is expected to closely follow dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence. In addition, markets repricing of a potential pivot in the Fed’s policy remains the exclusive driver of the pair’s price action for the time being.

Back to the euro area, the increasing speculation of a potential recession in the region - which looks propped up by dwindling sentiment gauges as well as an incipient slowdown in some fundamentals – emerges as an important domestic headwind facing the euro in the short-term horizon.

Key events in the euro area this week: Flash EMU Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) EMU, Germany Advanced PMIs (Wednesday) – Germany IFO Business Climate, ECB Accounts (Thursday) – Germany Final Q3 GDP Growth Rate, GfK Consumer Confidence (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle vs. increasing recession risks. Impact of the war in Ukraine and the persistent energy crunch on the region’s growth prospects and inflation outlook. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, the pair is gaining 0.43% at 1.0282 and faces the next up barrier at 1.0400 (200-day SMA) ahead of 1.0481 (monthly high November 15) and finally 1.0500 (round level). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0222 (weekly low November 21) would target 1.0021 (100-day SMA) en route to 0.9935 (low November 10).

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