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10 Mar 2023

EUR/JPY bounces off two-week low to regain 144.00, BoJ’s Kuroda, ECB’s Lagarde in the spotlight

  • EUR/JPY picks up bids to pare the previous day’s loses, stays pressured on the weekly basis.
  • Hawkish ECB concerns, downbeat Japan data propel prices ahead of the key BoJ.
  • BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy unchanged but the end of Kuroda-era teases doves for the one last shot.

EUR/JPY renews its intraday high near 144.40 as Tokyo opens for the key Friday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair reverses the previous day’s losses while picking up bids from a two-week low amid a cautious mood ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy announcements.

Apart from the pre-BoJ anxiety, a contraction between the monetary policy bias surrounding the BoJ and the European Central Bank (ECB) also weigh on the EUR/JPY price.

That said, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that they will bring inflation back to 2% by end-2024 or end-2025. On the other hand, expectations surrounding the BoJ event suggest no change in the monetary policy that supports the benchmark interest rates to be held at -0.1% while the Yield Curve Control (YCC) will maintain the current cap of 0.5%. 

Also read: Bank of Japan Preview: Kuroda’s and ultra-loose policy farewell

It should be noted that the downbeat prints of Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for February, -0.4% MoM versus -0.3% market forecasts and 0.0% prior, also weigh on the EUR/JPY prices.

Amid these plays, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields eased to 3.92% and 4.87% versus 5.08% and 4.01% daily open respectively on Thursday. With this, the 10-year coupons marked the biggest daily loss in a week while the two-year counterpart flashed the heaviest fall in two months. As a result, Wall Street benchmarks closed with more than 1.5% daily losses each, with S&P 500 Futures printing mild losses by the press time.

Given the downbeat yields and risk-off mood, the EUR/JPY price may witness hardships in extending the latest recovery. The same highlights the need for the BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to flash hawkish signs at the end of his dovish career. Additionally, ECB President Chritistine Lagare is also up for a speech and should defend the latest hawkish calls to keep the buyers hopeful.

Technical analysis

Although the 21-DMA restricts the immediate downside of the EUR/JPY pair to around 143.75, the latest rebound appears elusive until the quote stays below the previous support line from early February, near 144.75 by the press time.

 

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