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10 Mar 2023

GBP/USD marches towards 1.1950 as investors ignore aggressive Fed bets, UK data in focus

  • GBP/USD is aiming to recapture the immediate resistance of 1.1950 as USD Index has extended losses.
  • Investors have started shrugging off volatility associated with aggressive Fed rate hike bets.
  • A continuation of the UK’s manufacturing sector contraction might force the BoE to consider a steady monetary policy.

The GBP/USD pair has comfortably shifted its business above 1.1950 in the Asian session. The Cable is looking to stretch its recovery towards 1.1950 amid the absence of sheer anxiety among investors for the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Also, investors have started shrugging off volatility associated with aggressive Fed rate hike bets. Investors understand the fact that higher inflation could be tamed by restrictive measures from the Fed, therefore, more rates from the Fed are a reality.

S&P500 futures have extended their losses in the Asian session after a nosedive Thursday where investors were discouraged by higher taxes on corporations, billionaires, and rich investors. Higher taxes on corporations will trim their Net Profit margins and investors would get reduced dividends on their investments.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped below Thursday’s low at 105.13 on hopes that the US labor market is not solid now as considered earlier. An 11% jump in Initial Jobless Claims and four-fold planned lay-offs by US firms are indicating that the US labor market could decelerate ahead. This might compel the Fed to continue its moderate pace for hiking rates further.

However, the release of the US NFP will be of utmost importance to the market. As per the projections, the US economy has recorded a jump in the number of payrolls by 203K in February. The Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 3.4%.

On the Pound Sterling front, Manufacturing sector data will be keenly watched. Monthly Manufacturing production (Jan) and Industrial Production are expected to contract by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

Investors should be aware of the fact that the performance of the UK manufacturing sector has remained vulnerable in the past few months. This could force the Bank of England (BoE) to pause the policy-tightening process for the time being and allow current monetary policy to show its impact.

 

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