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10 Mar 2023

USD/INR Price Analysis: Indian Rupee jostles with 82.15 support confluence

  • USD/INR bears attack a convergence of 50-SMA, one-week-old resistance line.
  • Upbeat oscillators suggest further recovery but 200-SMA acts as additional upside filter.
  • Ascending trend line from Monday restricts immediate downside.

USD/INR struggles to extend the previous day’s recovery moves as it retreats to 82.00 round figure heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair steps back from a convergence of the 50-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a downward-sloping resistance line from February 27.

Even so, the bullish MACD signals and upward-sloping RSI (14), not overbought, keep USD/INR buyers hopeful of crossing the immediate 82.15 resistance confluence.

Following that, the 200-SMA level surrounding 82.35 acts as the last defense of the pair bears, a break of which could quickly propel the USD/INR prices toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its late January-February upside, around 82.55.

It should be noted that the Indian Rupee’s weakness past 82.55 could help the USD/INR bulls to refresh the monthly high, currently around 83.10. In that case, the October 2022 peak of near 83.43 will be in focus.

On the flip side, USD/INR pullback may initially aim for the weekly support line, close to 81.80 at the latest.

However, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly low, respectively near 81.70 and 81.60, could test the USD/INR bears before giving them control.

Overall, USD/INR is likely to recover but the road to the upside is long and bumpy.

USD/INR: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further upside expected

 

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