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14 Mar 2023

NZD/USD Price Analysis: 100-EMA prods bearish eyeing 0.6130

  • NZD/USD holds lower ground near intraday low, snaps two-day winning streak.
  • RSI retreat backs the Kiwi pair’s U-turn from 200-EMA, one-month-long resistance line.
  • Receding bullish bias of MACD signals, failure to cross key upside hurdles keep sellers hopeful.
  • Fortnight-old horizontal support area lures bears past 100-EMA break.

NZD/USD sticks to mild losses near 0.6210 during the first downbeat day in three heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Kiwi pair struggles to break the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) amid sluggish trading hours.

That said, the quote rose the most in nine weeks the previous day before retreating from 0.6265. The pullback moves could be linked to the NZD/USD pair’s inability to cross the 200-bar EMA, as well as a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-February.

Adding strength to the pullback moves could be the RSI (14) retreat from the overbought territory, as well as the receding bullish bias of the MACD signals.

It’s worth noting, however, that a clear downside break of the 100-bar EMA, around 0.6200 by the press time, becomes necessary for the NZD/USD bears to take control.

Following that, a south-run towards the two-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6130 and then to the monthly low of 0.6084 can’t be ruled out.

On the contrary, the aforementioned trend line and 200-EMA restrict short-term NZD/USD recovery to around 0.6230 and 0.6245 in that order.

In a case where NZD/USD remains firmer past 0.6245, the odds of witnessing a rally targeting the mid-February high of 0.6390 can’t be ruled out.

NZD/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected

 

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