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14 Mar 2023

USD/CAD tackles to hold above 1.3740 ahead of Tuesday’s US inflation data

  • USD/CAD opens the day at 1.3724 and trades at 1.3738, up by 0.10%.
  • The intraday price movements are relatively narrow at 1.3751-1.3706.
  • Market sentiment remains cautious due to the SVG collapse.
  • Investors await fresh impetus from the US CPI and Retail Sales data.

Daily price movements:

USD/CAD trades at 1.3738, slightly below 1,3740 at the press time, with the intraday price range being 1.3751 to 1.3706. The market sentiment remains cautious as investors await fresh impetus from Tuesday's upcoming US Inflation data at 12:30 GMT. The USD/CAD currency pair's price movements have been relatively narrow, struggling to gain momentum.

Investors' willingness to take risks is low due to the impact of the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVG) on global stocks. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to approximately 3.57% as investors anticipate that US inflation data will increase the demand for safe-haven investments.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has stated that the current monetary policy adequately controls inflation in Canada. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has decided to maintain the current monetary policy in March to assess its effectiveness. 

Nonetheless, unexpected growth in employment figures and an increase in the employment cost index imply that inflation could rise again. Along with maintaining the current monetary policy, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation unexpectedly rises.

Key economic events:

US February Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Tuesday at 12:30 GMT and US February Retail Sales on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT are critical data to be closely monitored.

Nonetheless, due to the unfortunate collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the markets are now expecting a more accommodating approach from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Technical view:

According to the daily chart, USD/CAD trades above its daily 20-SMA of 1.3596, indicating a short-term bullish trend. RSI(14) is at 62.250 at the time of press, indicating a buying stance. 

The daily pivot point is 1.3745, with daily resistance levels at 1.3814, 1.3896, and 1.3964 and daily support levels at 1.3663, 1.3594, and 1.3512.

 

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