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14 Mar 2023

EUR/USD resumes the upside near 1.0750 post-US CPI

  • EUR/USD now reverses initial losses and revisits 1.0750.
  • US CPI matched previous expectations in February.
  • Focus remains on the potential moves by the Fed in March.

EUR/USD now reverses the initial pessimism and retakes the 1.0750 region, advancing modestly on Tuesday.

EUR/USD: Gains look capped near 1.0750

EUR/USD trims its earlier decline after the US inflation figures tracked by the CPI showed headline consumer prices rose 6.0% in the year to February and 5.5% when it comes to the Core CPI, both prints matching initial consensus.

The dollar, in the meantime, gives away part of the earlier gains and now struggles to regain upside traction some traction in response to rising speculation that the Fed might pause its hiking cycle as soon as at the March gathering, always following heightened concerns around the US banking sector.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD now faces some downside pressure and keeps the upside target at the 1.0750 region amidst some inconclusive price action in the dollar following US CPI.

In the meantime, price action around the European currency should continue to closely follow dollar dynamics, as well as the potential next moves from the ECB past the March meeting, when the bank has already anticipated another 50 bps rate hike.

Key events in the euro area this week: ECOFIN Meeting (Tuesday) – EMU Industrial Production (Wednesday) – ECB Interest Rate decision, ECB Lagarde (Thursday) – EMU Final Inflation Rate (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle amidst dwindling bets for a recession in the region and still elevated inflation. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, the pair is retreating 0.07% at 1.0718 and faces the next contention at 1.0524 (monthly low March 8) seconded by 1.0481 (2023 low January 6) and finally 1.0324 (200-day SMA). On the upside, the breakout of 1.0737 (monthly high March 13) would target 1.0804 (weekly high February 14) en route to 1.1032 (2023 high February 2).

 

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises modestly to $1,910 after US CPI

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