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17 Oct 2023

AUD/USD rally takes a breather below 0.6350, investors await RBA Meeting Minutes, US Retail Sales

  • AUD/USD take a breather after recent gains around 0.6338 on Tuesday.
  • US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index was softer in October but better than expected.
  • Australian Weekly ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell to 76.4 vs. 80.1 prior.
  • Market players await the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes, US Retail Sales are due later on Tuesday.

The AUD/USD pair consolidated its recent gains during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes with few changes expected. The Aussie is firmer against the US Dollar (USD) due to the risk-on mood and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The pair currently trades around 0.6338, losing 0.06% on the day.


On Monday, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for October fell to 4.6 from a 1.9 rise in the previous reading, better than the expectation of a 7.0 decline. The data suggest a possible softening in manufacturing activity at the start of the fourth quarter.

Many Fed officials suggested that no further rate hikes are expected for the remainder of 2023. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker also said on Monday that the central bank should not create new pressures in the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing. Harker further stated that in the absence of some turn in the data Fed should hold rates steady. This dovish comment weighs on the US Dollar (USD). Market players will take more cues from Tuesday’s US Retail Sales figures, which are expected to decline from 0.6% to 0.3%.

On the Aussie front, the latest data from Australian Weekly ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey on Tuesday revealed that the nation’s Consumer Confidence fell to 76.4 versus 80.1 prior, with the decline across all subindices. The RBA Meeting Minutes is likely to hold a wait-and-see approach to interest rates. Investors will look for signs of increased concern about the pathway of inflation back to target.

Furthermore, signs of a diplomatic resolution to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may alleviate worries about energy sector supply disruptions and lift the risk-perceived currencies, like the Aussie Dollar (AUD).

Traders will focus on the RBA Meeting Minutes. The attention will shift to the US Retail Sales figures and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Beige Book report on Tuesday. On Thursday, the Australian employment data will be released. Traders will take cues from these figures and find the trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.

 

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