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21 Dec 2023

USD/TRY: Further gains towards 35 are possible next year – SocGen

Türkiye’s central bank (CBRT) meets today. Economists at Société Générale analyze Lira’s outlook ahead of the Interest Rate Decision.

CBRT tightening not over

The Central Bank of Türkiye has gone fully conventional by delivering a cumulative 3,250 bps of policy tightening since the new Treasury and Finance minister, and CBRT governor Hafize Gaye Erkan were installed after the spring election. The policy rate has been raised dramatically from 8.50% pre-election to 40.0% in November, and another layer of policy restraint may be added today.

Our house view calls for a terminal rate of 45.00%, so another two 250 bps hikes, today and one more in January 2024.

We do not think the TRY is out of the woods and further depreciation towards 35.00/USD is possible next year (EUR/TRY 40.00).

Dec 21, 2023

Gold price remains within tight range ahead of US core PCE data

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to come out of woods as investors are awaiting the release of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) for November, due on Friday.

Euro ticks lower as market braces for US PCE inflation data

The Euro (EUR) is trading with a moderate bearish tone at the mid-range of 1.0900 on Thursday’s European morning session.