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22 Dec 2023

EUR/USD gains ground above 1.1000 ahead of US PCE data

  • EUR/USD holds positive ground above the 1.1000 psychological mark ahead of US key data.
  • ECB’s Guindos said that it was premature to ease monetary policy.
  • US GDP growth number for Q3 expanded by 4.9%, weaker than the market estimation of 5.2%.
  • The US Core PCE report will be the highlight on Friday.

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains to its highest level in four months during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) and the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank lift the EUR/USD pair. Investors await November’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (Core PCE) on Friday, which is projected to rise 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY. The major pair currently trades around 1.1008, gaining 0.05% on the day.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said that it was premature for monetary policy to start to ease. He further stated that the central bank does not foresee a technical recession in the Eurozone and that they would welcome a deal on EU fiscal reform as it would alleviate market uncertainty. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said late Wednesday that the central bank needs to keep interest rates at the current level for some time, but the first rate cut could come later than investors are pricing around mid-2024

Across the pond, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a more dovish stance with the anticipation of potential rate cuts worth 75 basis points (bps) in the second half of 2024. About the data, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revealed on Thursday that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter expanded by 4.9%, weaker than the market estimation of 5.2%. That being said, the downbeat US data and the anticipation of three rate cuts by the Fed weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Moving on, The German Import Price Index and Consumer Confidence from France and Italy will be released. Market participants will closely watch the US Core PCE on Friday. This event could trigger volatility in the market ahead of the holiday season. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.







 

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