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22 Dec 2023

USD Index trades higher around 101.80 with a negative sentiment, US data eyed

  • US Dollar Index faces negative sentiment due to the expected dovish stance from the Fed.
  • Subdued US GDP data increased the chances of the Fed’s rate cuts in early 2024.
  • Fed members rejected the speculation of rate cuts in early 2024.
  • Traders await Core PCE - Price Index data to gain more cues on the US economic scenario.

US Dollar Index (DXY) attempts to retrace the recent losses, trading higher near 101.90 during the early European session on Friday. The recent release of mixed economic data from the United States (US) on Thursday has strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy in the first quarter of 2024. This anticipation is putting downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD).

The latest data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) indicates that Gross Domestic Product Annualized (GDP) eased at a rate of 4.9%, contrasting with the expected consistency at 5.2%. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey recorded a decline of 10.5 readings in December, exceeding the expected decline of 3.0 and the 5.9 figure decline in November. On a positive note, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on December 15 were 205K, below the expected 215K.

The elevated expectations of interest rate cuts seem to stem from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish stance in its latest meeting. While the central bank officials have communicated a cautious approach and discouraged premature conclusions, there is a recognition of the need for time before potential rate cuts. Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker has contributed to this dialogue by expressing openness to the possibility of lowering interest rates.

Market participants will likely observe Friday’s slew of economic data releases including the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index data, which are anticipated to print softer numbers.

 

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Economists at Danske Bank view narrowing rate differentials between Japan and G10 to favour the JPY over the coming year.
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France Consumer Confidence came in at 89, above expectations (88) in December

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