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22 Dec 2023

GBP/JPY faces pressure near 181.00 as UK recession fears deepen

  • GBP/JPY retreats from 181.00 as recession fears in the UK economy deepen.
  • BoE policymakers may get puzzled between recession and persistent inflation fears.
  • Japan’s inflation remains above 2% for the 20th month in a row.

The GBP/JPY pair fell back while attempting to climb above 181.00 after the United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (ONS), in its latest estimates, reported a contraction in the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The ONS projected a stagnant performance in the preliminary estimates and now a surprise contraction has deepened fears of a technical recession in the UK economy.

In the latest Summary of Projections (SOP), the Bank of England (BoE) forecasted a stagnant growth for the last quarter of 2024. Any unfavourable number would be considered as a technical recession. The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers are in dilemma whether to endorse rate cuts to avoid a technical recession or stay focused with restrictive policy stance to ensure return of inflation to 2%.

Meanwhile, stronger-than-projected Retail Sales data for November has delivered a reason to BoE policymakers to lean towards maintaining interest rates elevated.

The ONS reported that the consumer spending momentum grew at a stronger pace of 1.3% against estimates of 0.4%. In October, Retail Sales were stagnant. Annual Retail Sales surprisingly rose by 0.1% while investors forecasted a contraction by 1.3% due to heavy demand at non-food retail stores amid heavy discount due to Black Friday event. This has restored persistent inflation fears.

On the Tokyo front, Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy minutes indicated that members agreed to sustain interest rates negative till the achievement of 2% inflation through wage growth gets clear. Apart from that, National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, released in early Friday, decelerated to 2.8% against the former reading of 3.3%. Price pressures in the Japanese economy have remained above 2% for 20 straight months.

 

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