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27 Dec 2023

NZD/USD lowers down near 0.6320 amid stable US Dollar, awaits mid-impact US data

  • NZD/USD remains calm on low volume market ahead of US labor and housing data.
  • New Zealand Dollar received upward support on improved Kiwi’s Consumer and Business Confidence.
  • US Core PCE Inflation data came in lower than expected; weakening the US Dollar.
  • Downbeat US bond yields added to the downward pressure on the Greenback.

NZD/USD trades slightly lower around 0.6320 during the European session on Wednesday. However, market participants bet on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish stance on interest rate trajectory in early 2024, which weakens the demand for US Dollar (USD). This reinforces the strength of the NZD/USD pair.

The Kiwi Dollar receives support as improved Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence in New Zealand suggest a positive economic outlook. This could influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to potentially delay policy easing, contributing to the underpinning of the NZD. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr's cautious approach and acknowledgment of the challenges ahead, especially with elevated inflation levels, highlight the complexity of navigating the economic scenario.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around 101.50, facing pressure influenced by subdued US Treasury yields. Both the 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons are trading lower, standing at 4.29% and 3.88%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The US Dollar encountered added pressure as the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released a softer Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Index for November. The US Core PCE Inflation (Year-on-Year) recorded a growth of 3.2%, falling short of the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.4%. Additionally, the Month-on-Month report revealed a consistency of 0.1%, slightly below the market expectation of 0.2%.

In the upcoming week, Thursday is expected to be significant with the release of Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales data from the United States (US). These indicators will offer valuable insights into the labor market and the real estate sector, contributing to a better understanding of the overall economic landscape. Conversely, there are no scheduled data releases on the Kiwi economic docket for the week.

 

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