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28 Dec 2023

EUR/USD holds above the 1.1100 mark, US Jobless Claims data eyed

  • EUR/USD drifts higher to the highest since July above 1.1100 on Thursday.
  • The evidence of cooling inflation helped to convince policymakers about the rate cuts next year.
  • Lagarde added that the ECB should not lower the guard and central bank’s policy decisions are data-dependent.
  • Market players will monitor the US weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, and the November Pending Home Sales report on Thursday.

The EUR/USD pair extends the rally above the 1.1100 psychological mark during the early Asian session on Thursday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) broadly lends some support to the major pair. At press time, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1109, up 0.03% on the day. Traders enter holiday mode, and the market is likely to be calm this week.

The potential rate cut next year from the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to support a risk rally and boost the Euro (EUR) to its highest since July. The evidence of cooling inflation helped to convince policymakers about the rate cuts next year, despite Fed officials having been hesitant to declare victory. Investors expect the Fed to hold the rates at its upcoming January meeting and have fully priced in a rate cut in March and May 2024 meetings, according to the CME FedWatch Tol.

On the Euro front, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivered rather hawkish comments in her latest press conference. Lagarde pushed back against market expectations on interest rate cuts by saying that the Eurozone inflation pressures are easing as expected, but wage growth is still strong and the outlook is especially uncertain. Lagarde added that the ECB should not lower the guard, and the central bank’s policy decisions are data-dependent and not influenced by market pricing or time-bound pressures.

Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance and the November Pending Home Sales report, due on Thursday. Amidst the holiday season's thin trading, the risk sentiment and the ongoing adjustments in central bank policies are expected to continue influencing EUR/USD movements.

 

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