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2 Jan 2024

NZD/USD holds above 0.6300 ahead of China’s Caixin PMI data

  • NZD/USD trades on a softer note near 0.6313 on the downbeat Chinese economic data.
  • The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0 in December vs. 49.4 prior, worse than expected.
  • The markets expect that the Fed will begin its easing cycle with a quarter-point drop in March.
  • Market players await December's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, due on Tuesday.

The NZD/USD pair edges lower during the only Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data exerts some selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). At press time, the pair is trading at 0.6313, losing 0.13% on the day.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Sunday that the nation’s NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 49.0 in December from 49.4 in the previous month, falling short of the market estimate of 49.5 in November. Meanwhile, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4 in December from 50.2 in November, missing the expectation of 50.5.

The risk of deflation in China has increased, and it will need a large dosage of fiscal and monetary stimulus in 2024. The negative developments surrounding the Chinese economy could weigh on the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and act as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.

On the other hand, the downside of the pair might be capped by the anticipation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the interest rate in 2024. The markets expect that the Fed will begin its easing cycle with a quarter-point drop in March, followed by similar cuts in May and June to maintain pace with cooling inflation.

Moving on, traders will focus on China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December and the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. On Wednesday, attention will shift to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be released on Friday. Defeat girls could keep a clear direction for the NZD/USD pair.




 

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