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8 Jan 2024

AUD/USD trades with mild negative bias above 0.6700, eyes on Australian Retail Sales data

  • AUD/USD trades weaker around 0.6712 amid the USD rebound.
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls rose 216K, beating expectations; the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 3.7%.
  • Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 56% odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut.
  • Australian monthly Retail Sales for November and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December will be in the spotlight this week.

The AUD/USD pair trades on a softer note above the 0.6700 mark during the early Asian session on Monday. The recovery of the US Dollar (USD) from its late December low drags the AUD/USD lower. Investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week for fresh impetus. This figure could trigger the volatility of the pair in the near term. The pair currently trades near 0.6712, down 0.03% on the day.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Friday that the December Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose 216K from the previous reading of 173K, stronger than the 170K expected. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings climbed 0.4% MoM and 4.1 YoY in December. Finally, the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 3.7%, suggesting the economy is still some way from recession.

In response to the data, the Fed funds futures markets lower the odds of a March rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) to about 56%, according to the CME Group. The Fed officials released interest rate projections at their December meeting, indicating that they expect three quarter-percentage points of rate cuts in 2024. Nonetheless, the markets anticipate the Fed to be more aggressive, with futures traders pricing in up to six cuts.

On the other hand, market players will monitor the Australian monthly Retail Sales for November on Tuesday, which is estimated to show an increase of 1.2% after contracting 0.2% in October. The figure might convince the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers to keep interest rates elevated for longer.

 

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China Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM) above forecasts ($3.2T) in December: Actual ($3.238T)

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Jan 8, 2024

Fed's Barkin: Labor market is moving in softening pattern

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that the labor market in the United States is moving in a very steady softening pattern and is unlikely to reaccelerate at this point.
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