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9 Jan 2024

AUD/USD consolidates above the 0.6700 mark ahead of Australian Retail Sales data

  • AUD/USD oscillates in a narrow trading band around 0.6719 on Tuesday.
  • The markets have priced in a 50% possibility of a rate cut in the March meeting.
  • Australian Retail Sales for November are projected to rise 1.2% versus -0.2% prior.

The AUD/USD pair consolidates above the 0.6700 mark during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not cut their policy rate as quickly as previously expected lends some support to the US Dollar (USD) and weighs on the pair. Investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later this week for the near-term catalysts. At press time, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6719, gaining 0.01% on the day.

The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.2% MoM in December, although energy price volatility poses downside risks. The headline CPI figures for December are estimated to show an increase of 0.2% MoM and 3.2%, respectively.

The Fed Chair Powell recently highlighted inflation progress throughout 2023, fueling speculation that the FOMC may shortly consider cutting interest rates. On Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that she now sees US monetary policy as sufficiently restrictive and signaled her willingness to support eventual interest-rate cuts as inflation eases. Expectations for an early rate cut from the FOMC are high with the market pricing in a 50% odds of a March rate cut, according to the CME Group.

On the Aussie front, the Australian Retail Sales for November will be due later on Tuesday. The figure is projected to rise 1.2% from a 0.2% drop in the previous reading. The report could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain interest rates high for longer.

 

Jan 9, 2024

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Extends losses to two days, diving below 158.00

The EUR/JPY begins the week on a lower note, posting losses of 0.17% on Monday amid a risk-on impulse.
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Jan 9, 2024

Lack of Eurozone productivity gains: structural, not cyclical - Natxis

A research note from Patrick Artus of Natixis Research is out on Monday, highlighting how the lack of productivity gains for the Eurozone could be a result of structural weakness, rather than the oft-touted cyclical factors.
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