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12 Jan 2024

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Trades higher around 1.0980 on subdued US Dollar

  • EUR/USD extends gains as the US Dollar declines on risk-on mood.
  • MACD suggests waiting for the confirmation of bullish sentiment in the pair.
  • A break above 1.1000 could propel the pair to reach the previous week’s high at 1.1038.

EUR/USD continues to gain ground for the third successive day, trading higher around 1.0980 during the Asian session on Friday. The EUR/USD pair receives upward support due to the subdued US Dollar (USD), a trend attributed to the market's expectations of five rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2024, beginning with anticipated cuts in March and May.

The EUR/USD pair could face resistance at the psychological level of 1.1000. A successful breakthrough above this level could potentially provide support for the pair to revisit the high from the previous week at 1.1038. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the EUR/USD pair is positioned above the 50 mark, indicating a bullish momentum in the market.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line, despite being positioned above the centerline, is converging below the signal line. This indicates a potential momentum shift toward an upward trend for the EUR/USD pair. Traders are likely to exercise caution and await confirmation before making aggressive bets in the pair, taking into consideration the signals provided by this lagging indicator.

On the downside, the EUR/USD pair faces the possibility of breaking below the immediate support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, marked at 1.0964, followed by the key level of 1.0950. If the immediate support area is breached, it could prompt the pair to approach the psychological level of 1.0900.

A decisive break below the latter could intensify downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair, potentially guiding it toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0895 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0867. Further downside movement may lead to a significant support level at 1.0850. Traders may closely monitor these key levels for potential shifts in market dynamics.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

 

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