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18 Jan 2024

EUR/USD holds below the 1.0900 mark, focus on Lagarde’s speech, US data

  • EUR/USD gains ground near 1.0893 despite the stronger US Dollar.
  • ECB’s Vasle said it’s premature to expect the first rate cuts at the beginning of the second quarter.
  • The stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales data potentially delays the need for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The EUR/USD pair remains capped under the 1.0900 mark during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The major pair gains traction despite the firmer US Dollar (USD). The European Central Bank (ECB) hawks have pushed back against expectations of an early rate cut, which lends some support to the Euro (EUR). At press time, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0893, gaining 0.12% on the day.

Some ECB policymakers have argued that inflation in the Euro area is still too high, and they have pushed back against expectations of an early rate cut. The ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle said that it’s premature to expect the first rate cuts at the beginning of the second quarter. Vasle added that inflation must be headed back to the 2% target to be able to change the course of monetary policy.

Although investors anticipate no change in the ECB policy at its January meeting, market players will closely monitor the press conference for any confirmation on whether the Governing Council discussed rate cuts and the potential timing of such cuts.

On the other hand, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said interest rate cuts are likely this year, but the central bank should not rush to cut its benchmark rate until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained. The upbeat US Retail Sales data on Wednesday has lowered the odds for the Fed’s rate cut. The increase in Retail Sales shows that the economy is stronger than previously expected, potentially delaying the need for rate cuts. This, in turn, boosts the Greenback broadly and acts as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Moving on, the ECB will release its Accounts of the latest meeting, and President Lagarde is set to speak at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. Furthermore, the US Housing Starts, Building Permits, weekly Initial Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be released later on Thursday.

 

Jan 18, 2024

Houthis hit US-owned ship after redesignation as global terrorists

Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted a US-owned cargo ship with a kamikaze drone in the Red Sea late Wednesday after Washington said it will re-designate the Houthis to its list of “specially designated global terrorists," per the BBC.
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Jan 18, 2024

PBoC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1174 vs. 7.1168 previous

On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1174 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1168 and 7.1976 Reuters estimates.
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