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18 Jan 2024

USD/CHF improves to near 0.8650 on a diminished expectation of Fed rate cuts in March

  • USD/CHF continues to gain ground market caution toward Fed rate cuts.
  • SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan will speak at the WEF in Davos on Thursday.
  • Solid Retail Sales data contributed to diminishing the easing of the Fed’s monetary policy.

USD/CHF moves higher on the third consecutive day despite a correction in the US Dollar (USD). The USD/CHF pair trades higher near 0.8650 during the Asian session on Thursday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) receives downward pressure ahead of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan’s speech Thursday at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.

The most recent policy update from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was in December, where they expressed a commitment to adjusting monetary policy if needed to maintain inflation within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term. In their latest policy decision, the SNB maintained a relatively neutral stance, without any major surprises.

Recent indicators, such as a slight increase in Swiss consumer prices in December and an improvement in Swiss consumer demand in November, may influence the SNB's decision-making in the upcoming meeting. These moderate figures could potentially dissuade the Swiss National Bank from making adjustments to its monetary policy. The SNB also indicated a willingness to be active in the foreign exchange market, if necessary, to provide support for the Swiss Franc.

The US Dollar enjoys support from investor sentiment as expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) initial rate cut in March have been scaled back. This adjustment has been reinforced in the wake of robust US Retail Sales data released on Wednesday. The probability of a rate cut has decreased notably to 57%, marking a significant decline from the previous level of over 70%.

The data on US Retail Sales for December reveals a growth of 0.6% on a month-over-month basis, surpassing market expectations of 0.4% and exceeding the previous figure of 0.3%. Additionally, the Retail Sales Control Group displayed improvement, reaching 0.8% compared to the previous reading of 0.5%. Market participants are likely to keep an eye on US housing data scheduled for release on Thursday.

 

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