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25 Jan 2024

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD declines ahead of packed Thursday

  • XAU/USD suffered from a strong downward pull, closing at $2,013.
  • The US will release PCE data from December and Q4 GDP preliminary estimations on Thursday.
  • Despite the negative action, pair holds above 100 and 200-day SMAs, hinting toward bull's control in longer run.

On Wednesday's session, the XAU/USD was spotted at $2,013 following a sturdy 0.80% downward movement. The daily chart manifests a neutral to bullish stance, however, bulls are are in command in the overall trend. Meanwhile, on a shorter timeframe, the four-hour chart displays more discernible negative action. Fundamentally speaking rising US yields ahead of key economic indicators from the US seemed to have weakened the metal.

In that sense, as the markets await fresh catalysts to continue placing their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) easing cycle, US yields are holding their ground, suggesting that markets are now not so confident at the bank will rush to start easing. In that sense, if yields rise, it tends to weaken the non-yielding metals as interest rates are often seen as the cost of holding metals.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and the preliminary Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due on Thursday, will set the pace of the markets as they will give markets more guidance on the Fed’s easing calendar.

XAU/USD levels to watch

The daily chart indicators reveal a complex scenario where both bears and bulls are battling to command the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a negative trajectory and dwelling in the bearish sector indicates a certain selling momentum. Simultaneously, the red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are rising, suggesting increased bearish momentum. However, the pair remains above both the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), pointing to an enduring overall bullish stronghold, despite a failing grip on the 20-day SMA.

Taking a shorter-term look at the four-hour chart, the scenario appears more tilted towards a bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points down in the negative sphere reflecting the mounting selling pressure. The escalating red bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirm the growing bearish momentum. This tendency indicates that the bears are fortifying their position in the near term, leading to the bulls struggling to regain footing.

 

XAU/USD daily chart

 

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