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25 Jan 2024

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls in command despite short-term lag, bears consolidate losses

  • The AUD/JPY is recording gains, standing firmly above major SMAs overall but exhibits short-term bearish sentiment.
  • Key indicators like RSI and MACD on daily chart imply ambiguity but lean towards the bullish side.
  • The four-hour chart reflects continued bearish momentum, but with bears taking a break from Wednesday’s losses.

In Thursday's session, the AUD/JPY was spotted at 97.20, benefitting from 0.25% gains. Following a sharp 0.60% decline the previous day, sellers maintain their presence though seem to be on pause, rendering the daily chart outlook as neutral to bullish. Yet, the four-hour chart reveals persisting bearish momentum, that there may be further downside on the horizon.

In light of the technical indicators on the daily chart, the overall tone for the currency pair is in favor of the buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) show a positive bias with an upward trajectory within a bullish territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sporting green bars indicate a flat bullish momentum. Moreover, the pair's position above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) underscores the domination of bullish traders in the broader scheme. However, it's noteworthy that despite displaying this somewhat optimistic landscape, bears seem to be taking a breather after losing more than 0.60% on Wednesday.

Shifting focus to the shorter-time frame, the momentum appears to be siding with the sellers. This negative momentum is clearly visible in the four-hour chart, which demonstrates a downward slope of the Relative Strength Index (RSI)–a sign of increased selling pressure. Despite the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showing flat green bars which generally indicates bullish momentum, in this context parallel with a declining RSI, it seems to be more indicative of a temporarily stalled bearish momentum. In summary, the current technical landscape suggests bears are still persistently at play in the short-term, likely to resume their activity shortly.

AUD/JPY technical levels

AUD/JPY daily chart

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