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26 Jan 2024

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD rally stalls near $23 as focus shifts to US core PCE data

  • Silver price faces some pressure while attempting to extend rally above $23.
  • The market mood is downbeat as investors await the core PCE price index data for December.
  • Strong GDP numbers and stubborn inflation data could allow Fed to maintain a hawkish interest rate stance.

Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend upside above the crucial resistance of $23.00. The white metal turns sideways as investors shift focus towards the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

S&P500 futures have posted significant losses in the European session, portraying a sharp decline in the risk-appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) aims to recapture almost six-week high of 103.82 as safe-haven demand improves.

The US Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, released on Thursday, indicated the economy grew at a robust pace of 3.3%. This has escalated upside risks to price pressures.

Meanwhile, investors await the US core PCE price index data. Investors have anticipated that the annual underlying inflation grew at a slower pace of 3.0% against reading of 3.2% in November. Monthly core PCE data is anticipated to rise by 0.2% after increasing by 0.1%.

A combination of stubborn inflation data and upbeat economic prospects would allow Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers to stick to their hawkish interest rate stance atleast for the first-half of 2024.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price attempts to deliver a breakout of the Descending Triangle chart pattern formed on a four-hour scale. The downward-sloping trendline of the aforementioned chart pattern is plotted from 3 December 2023 high at $25.92 while the horizontal support is placed from 13 November 2023 low at $21.88. The asset has stabilized above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $22.73.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) aims to stabilize into the 60.00-80.00 range. A bullish momentum would appear if the RSI (14) manages to do so.

Silver four-hour chart

 

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