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28 Aug 2024

AUD: Cautious optimism on disinflation – ING

For the second consecutive month, there is some tentatively encouraging news on inflation for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Monthly headline CPI eased from 3.8% to 3.5% year-on-year in July. That was above the 3.4% consensus, but the slowdown in the trimmed mean (i.e. core) from 4.1% to 3.8% made up for that, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

AUD to test December-2023 highs at 0.6850

“The AUD followed Australian bond yields higher right after the release, but is now trading back below 0.680. There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic on Australian disinflation at this point, but we still see market pricing for one RBA cut in December as too dovish and think easing will only start in 1Q25. Remember that RBA rates are at 4.35%, which is still below the rates expected of the Fed and the RBNZ (both 4.50%) by year-end.”

“Some short-term USD rebound can put some pressure on AUD, but it seems too early to rule out that the 0.6850 December-2023 highs will be tested.”

Aug 28, 2024

EUR: Second fiddle Euro – Commerzbank

The market has focused heavily on the US Dollar (USD) in the recent past.
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Aug 28, 2024

Natural Gas steady while New Zealand lifts LNG import ban

Natural Gas is trading at $2.17 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  Natural Gas prices (XNG/USD) remain in the clear range between $2.13 and $2.36 for most of August. Demand still looks bleak, with Europe and China having less demand for Liquified
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