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22 Jan 2025

Copper CTAs to abandon their net longs – TDS

Downside asymmetry in the set-up for Copper flows is forming. Range-bound price action is akin to time-decay for trend signals, which lowers the bar for whipsaws in algo positioning, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

CTAs may turn to building a significant net short position

"Our simulations of future prices point to no reasonable scenario for price action that could lead to subsequent CTA buying activity for the time being, but conversely, the bar is low for CTAs to sell their entire book long."

"In fact, a continued downtape in prices could force CTAs to abandon their net long and flip towards building a significant net short position, in a series of selling programs that could total up to -55% of algos' max size."

Jan 22, 2025

Any further strength in Gold is likely to lift Silver – TDS

Algos are going to propel precious metals further. Markets expect CTAs will add to their net length in Gold over the coming week, in any scenario for future prices. This bolsters our conviction that the time for caution in gold has ended, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Confirming you are not from the U.S. or the Philippines

Copper CTAs to abandon their net longs – TDS

CTAs may turn to building a significant net short position

Any further strength in Gold is likely to lift Silver – TDS

United States 20-Year Bond Auction up to 4.9% from previous 4.686%