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5 Feb 2025

JPY: BOJ policy rate is still expected to peak around 1.00% – Société Générale

Japanese Yen (JPY) is outperforming and 10-year JGB yields edged up to almost 1.30%, highest level since April 2011, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

JPY is outperforming and 10-year JGB yields

"Japan wage growth ran hot in December. Nominal cash earnings came in 1.1pts higher than expected at near a three-decade high of 4.8% y/y vs. 3.9% in November (revised up from 3.0%) reflecting a jump in bonuses."

"The less volatile scheduled pay growth for full-time workers matched consensus at 2.8% y/y vs. 2.7% y/y in November and is down from a series high of 3% in July 2024. This is consistent with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) projection for inflation to stabilize around its 2% target in 2026 assuming productivity growth of 1%."

"Bottom line: the BOJ policy rate is still expected to peak around 1.00% over the next two years which curtails upside for JPY and JGB yields."

Feb 5, 2025

USD/CAD slumps below 1.4300 as CAD capitalizes on Trump’s suspension of tariff orders

The USD/CAD pair extends its losing streak below the key level of 1.4300 in Wednesday’s European session.

Fed sticks to hawkish rhetoric, according to FXS Fed Sentiment Index

Following the first policy meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% in a widely anticipated decision.