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5 Feb 2025

Markets continue to imply another RBNZ 50bps rate cut in February – Société Générale

NZD/USD is consolidating recent gains triggered by broad USD weakness, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD

"New Zealand labor market conditions further weakened in Q4, largely matching expectations. The unemployment rate rose three ticks to a four-year high at 5.1% (consensus & RBNZ: 5.1%). Employment dipped -0.1% q/q (consensus: -0.2%, RBNZ: -0.3%) vs. -0.6% in Q3 (revised down from -0.5%). Private sector wages grew 0.6% q/q (consensus: 0.6%, RBNZ: 0.5%) vs. 0.6% in Q3."

"In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD."

Feb 5, 2025

Fed sticks to hawkish rhetoric, according to FXS Fed Sentiment Index

Following the first policy meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% in a widely anticipated decision.

Growth below expectations to remain a structural drag for CNH – Société Générale

USD/CNH is heavy near 7.2700. China’s private sector services growth traction unexpectedly slowed in January, Société Générale's FX analysts note.