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5 Feb 2025

Fed's Barkin: Still think policy rate is modestly restrictive

In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said that he still thinks the policy rate is modestly restrictive, per Reuters.

Key takeaways

"Looking forward, it is hard to know what specific tariffs are coming."

"Uncertainty goes beyond tariffs to immigration, regulation, other issues."

"Baseline data has been favorable."

"Expecting 12 month inflation numbers to come down nicely."

"Still leaning towards cuts this year."

"Would never take any policy move off the table, but hikes would require an economy overheating."

"No evidence of overheating at this point."

"Recalibrated to a place that is more sensible to where the economy is now."

"Bias is to see what happens and react to it."

Market reaction

The US Dollar stays under bearish pressure following these comments. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.48% on the day at 107.48.

Feb 5, 2025

US Dollar extends correction as global trade war fears ease

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, dives lower and trades near 107.50 at the time of writing on Wednesday ahead of the US Purchase Managers Index (PMI) releases from both S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

USD slides as trade fears ease – Scotiabank

The USD continues to retreat, leaving the DXY more than 2% below Monday’s peak, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.