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19 Feb 2025

EUR: Weakening across the board – ING

The rise in the German ZEW index yesterday was likely due to improved investors' sentiment ahead of expectations for a market-friendly change in government, but does not seem to mirror any real change in sentiment on growth, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

More downside risks for the EUR/USD

"The Euro (EUR) continues to follow sentiment on the implications of Russia-US talks, and we are starting to observe some signs of relative underperformance of European currencies that we suspect will be exacerbated by Trump’s more transactional approach to European NATO allies."

"Our short-term fair value model continues to show zero risk premium (i.e. undervaluation) on EUR/USD, suggesting more downside risks related to a repricing of US protectionism risk into FX. We could see the correction run until 1.040 this week."

Feb 19, 2025

EUR/USD edges higher as US Dollar trades cautiously ahead of FOMC minutes

EUR/USD ticks higher to near 1.0460 in Wednesday’s European session as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend recovery despite multiple tailwinds.

GBP: Inflation rebound not concerning – ING

The release of January’s UK inflation data this morning has had little impact on the pound.