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19 Feb 2025

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Sits near two-month high, above mid-0.6300s ahead of FOMC minutes

  • AUD/USD attracts fresh buyers on Wednesday amid a modest USD weakness.
  • The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for additional gains. 
  • Any slide below the 0.6335-0.6330 area could be seen as a buying opportunity. 

The AUD/USD pair regains positive traction following the previous day's modest downtick and sticks to its positive bias through the first half of the European session amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) relatively hawkish outlook assists spot prices to hold steady near the 0.6365 area, or just below the highest level since December 17 touched on Monday.

Looking at the broader picture, the AUD/USD pair has been oscillating in a narrow range since the beginning of the currency week. Against the backdrop of the recent goodish recovery from sub-0.6100 levels, or the lowest level since April 2020 touched earlier this month, this might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase. Moreover, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. 

Hence, some follow-through buying should allow the AUD/USD pair to surpass the 0.6400 round figure and climb further toward the 0.6415 confluence. The latter comprises the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the September 2024-February 2025 downfall. A sustained strength beyond would then lift spot prices to the 0.6500 psychological mark en route to the 200-day SMA, around the 0.6555-0.6560 zone. 

On the flip side, the 0.6335-0.6330 region, or the lower boundary of the weekly range, might continue to act as an immediate support ahead of the 0.6300 mark. A convincing break below the latter could drag the AUD/USD pair further toward the 0.6265 intermediate support en route to the 0.6240-0.6235 zone. Some follow-through selling could make spot prices vulnerable to weaken further below the 0.6200 mark, towards the next relevant support near the 0.6145 area.

AUD/USD daily chart

fxsoriginal

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Feb 19, 2025 19:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: -

Previous: -

Source: Federal Reserve

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

 

Feb 19, 2025

GBP/USD: Unlikely to break clearly above 1.2655 – UOB Group

Chance for Pound Sterling (GBP) to edge higher vs US Dollar (USD), but it is unlikely to break clearly above 1.2655.
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Feb 19, 2025

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a increased to €50.5B in December from previous €34.6B

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a increased to €50.5B in December from previous €34.6B
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