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21 Feb 2025

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls lose momentum as pair faces rejection at 100-day SMA

  • EUR/USD slips 0.22% to 1.0450 on Friday, reversing after testing the 100-day SMA.
  • RSI drops sharply to 55, signaling weakening bullish momentum near the midpoint.
  • MACD histogram prints lower green bars, indicating fading buying pressure and potential for further downside.

The EUR/USD pair faced a setback on Friday, declining by 0.44% to settle near 1.0450 after encountering firm resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0540. This rejection marks a critical turning point for the pair, suggesting that bullish momentum is beginning to wane after a recent run higher. Without a decisive break above this key level, bulls appear to be losing their grip on the market.

Technical indicators are reinforcing the weakening outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen sharply to 55, approaching the neutral midpoint, which could signal a shift in sentiment if breached. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing flat green bars with a downward tilt, reflecting diminishing buying pressure and growing risk of a bearish reversal.

If EUR/USD fails to reclaim the 100-day SMA in the near term, the recent upward move could be deemed a temporary correction rather than a structural shift. The pair may either retreat further or become range-bound between the 100-day SMA resistance and the 20-day SMA, which could act as initial support around the 1.0415 region. A sustained break below the 20-day SMA would further solidify the bearish outlook.

EUR/USD daily chart

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