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4 Apr 2025

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bounces back from 200-day EMA

  • USD/CAD recovers from the 200-day EMA to near 1.4160 ahead of US/Canada employment data for March.
  • Tariffs by US President Trump are expected to weigh on global economic outlook.
  • Fed Powell is expected to provide cues about how Trump tariffs-driven inflation will impact the monetary policy outlook.

The USD/CAD pair rebounds to near 1.4160 during European trading hours on Friday from an almost four-month low of 1.4026 posted on Thursday. The Loonie pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) attracts bids even though the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has raised concerns over the United States (US) economic outlook.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near 102.60 from its recent lows of 101.25.

Market experts believe that Trump’s tariffs will result in a resurgence in inflation and weigh on economic growth. However, Trump is confident that his protectionist policies will increase manufacturing jobs in the US.

Meanwhile, investors await the labor market data from both the United States (US) and Canada, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US and the Canadian economy are expected to have added 135K and 12K fresh workers in March. During the North American session, investors will also focus on Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for fresh guidance on the monetary policy outlook.

USD/CAD recovers from 1.4026, testing the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the February 17 low around 1.4160. The pair bounced back after attracting bids near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.4070.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to recover above 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI fails to climb above the 40.00 level.

A fresh downside would appear if the pair breaks below the December 6 low of 1.4020. The scenario would expose the pair to the psychological support of 1.4000, followed by the November 25 low of 1.3927.

On the flip side, the pair would strengthen if it breaks above the April 3 high of 1.4320. Such a scenario would send the major higher to near the April 1 high of 1.4415 and the March 14 high of 1.4447.

USD/CAD daily chart

 

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Apr 4, 2025

Oil: OPEC+ shock supply increase – ING

Oil prices took a big hit yesterday as a barrage of new tariffs raised concerns over global growth and the outlook for oil demand. ICE Brent settled more than 6.4% lower on the day – the largest sell-off since August 2022, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
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Apr 4, 2025

AUD/USD: Above 0.6410, further advances can be expected – UOB Group

Instead of continuing to rise, AUD is more likely to trade in a 0.6260/0.6360 range. In the longer run, AUD must break and hold above the significant resistance at 0.6410 before further advances can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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