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15 Apr 2025

China imported significantly more crude oil in March – Commerzbank

China's crude oil imports rose to 12.1 million barrels per day in March, according to data from the customs authority, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Iran and Russia fuel China’s crude buying spree

"This was around 1.7 million barrels per day higher than in January/February and almost 5% higher than in the previous year. At the same time, it was the highest import volume in one month for more than a year and a half. A sharp rise in oil imports from Iran is being held responsible for this, even though China does not publish any official data in this regard."

"The data provider Vortexa reports a strong increase in seaborne oil imports, which was driven by record-high shipments from Iran to the Shandong province. Independent refineries are suspected of having imported oil from Iran in the run-up to the stricter US sanctions. There is also said to have been an increase in oil imports from Russia. Crude oil imports are unlikely to maintain the high level of March."

"The fact that Chinese exports of oil products fell significantly in March and the first quarter also speaks against this. Chinese refineries were granted lower export quotas than in the previous year, which is likely to have made it more difficult for them to export the surplus of oil products. This suggests lower crude oil processing and lower crude oil imports in the coming months."

Apr 15, 2025

Brent forward curve flattened significantly over the first 12 months – Commerzbank

In the wake of the sharp fall in oil prices, the time spreads, i.e. the price differentials along the forward curves, also narrowed significantly last week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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Apr 15, 2025

OPEC lowers its demand forecast only slightly – Commerzbank

OPEC revised its forecast for global oil demand slightly downwards in its monthly report published yesterday due to the expected impact of US tariffs. It now expects an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day for both this year and next.
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