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16 Apr 2025

EUR/GBP: Raising the profile – ING

EUR/GBP has held up better than expected, buoyed by euro strength and pressure on sterling from rising gilt yields. While a dovish ECB may cap gains short term, eurozone fiscal stimulus and rate hike expectations in 2026 could drive the pair higher over time, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.

EUR/GBP outperforms on Euro strength

"EUR/GBP has been a lot stronger than most expected, largely as euro strength won through. Potentially hurting sterling, however, has been higher gilt yields – dragged higher by the Treasury sell-off. Any move back in 10yr gilts to 4.90/5.00% could trigger some more independent GBP weakness."

"A dovish ECB could keep EUR/GBP restrained in the near term. However, EUR/GBP should start marching higher again in 2026 when eurozone growth gets a lift from fiscal stimulus and the market could be starting to price an end-2026 ECB rate hike. The new EUR/GBP trading range could be something like 0.8500-0.8750 for the second quarter."


Apr 16, 2025

USD/CAD slides back into multiyear range – Societe Generale

USD/CAD continues to trend lower after February's rejection at 1.48, breaking below the 200-DMA and slipping back into a multiyear range.
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Apr 16, 2025

Safety, export markets and oil as drivers – Commerzbank

Much has happened since the US 'Liberation Day' on 2 April. Tariffs have been introduced, only to be partially suspended. Negotiations have begun, though seemingly without much prospect of success. And new tariffs are already being planned. Of course, all this has not left the markets unscathed.
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