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16 Apr 2025

AUD/USD: Still the most vulnerable – ING

AUD/USD has retraced its losses, but the Australian dollar remains fragile amid cross weakness and persistent US-China trade tensions. With the RBA likely to cut in May and AUD still acting as a China proxy, downside risks remain firmly in place, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.

China ties leave AUD exposed despite RBA outlook

"After a 6% temporary drop, AUD/USD is back at pre-liberation day levels. But the Aussie dollar is significantly weaker in the crosses, and the rebound has mostly been driven by the USD confidence crisis."

"AUD remains the key barometer of the US-China trade spat. While Trump’s next move on trade has proven hard to predict, it is clear that tariffs on China are stickier than elsewhere. That places AUD in a still unfavourable situation."

"The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut in May, although a 50bp cut (which is 40bp priced in) looks a bit too aggressive. Anyway, the RBA is a marginal driver of AUD, which remains more vulnerable than any other G10 currencies due to its China-proxy character."

Apr 16, 2025

CAD: Tariffs recede into the background for the market, but does the same apply for the BoC? – Commerzbank

The tariffs no longer seem to be a major issue for the CAD, especially since the US administration has exempted Canada from the reciprocal tariffs.
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Apr 16, 2025

USD/CAD declines to near 1.3900 ahead of BoC’s monetary policy decision

The USD/CAD pair falls sharply to near 1.3900 in Wednesday’s European session. The Loonie pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) falls back after a short-recovery move on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 99.40.
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