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22 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: BOJ client survey points Mr. Kuroda as the most popular candidate - Nomura
As markets continue to be focused on the next head of the BOJ, Nomura conducted a client survey to understand market expectations. Nomura conclusions can be read below:
"Our survey showed that there is no clear consensus among investors on the most likely candidate, with Mr Kuroda being the most popular (41%), followed by Mr Muto (29%) and then Mr Iwata (24%)."
"We were surprised by the results, as some media sources including Reuters had suggested Mr Muto was a front-runner around the time we conducted our survey, although the situation remains very fluid with respect to media reports. Mr Muto is regarded as less dovish than Kuroda and Iwata. Hence, the nomination of Mr Muto would likely be bearish USD/JPY at least in the short term."
"In terms of foreign bond buying, only 27% expect it, a far lower figure than the 57% in our early-January poll. Our survey suggests that investors expect USD/JPY to trade higher. 55% expect USDJPY to trade above 95 as of mid-2013 while 72% expect it to trade above 95 as of end-2013. Target ranges for mid- and end-2013 were upgraded by 5pts from the previous survey."
"Our survey showed that there is no clear consensus among investors on the most likely candidate, with Mr Kuroda being the most popular (41%), followed by Mr Muto (29%) and then Mr Iwata (24%)."
"We were surprised by the results, as some media sources including Reuters had suggested Mr Muto was a front-runner around the time we conducted our survey, although the situation remains very fluid with respect to media reports. Mr Muto is regarded as less dovish than Kuroda and Iwata. Hence, the nomination of Mr Muto would likely be bearish USD/JPY at least in the short term."
"In terms of foreign bond buying, only 27% expect it, a far lower figure than the 57% in our early-January poll. Our survey suggests that investors expect USD/JPY to trade higher. 55% expect USDJPY to trade above 95 as of mid-2013 while 72% expect it to trade above 95 as of end-2013. Target ranges for mid- and end-2013 were upgraded by 5pts from the previous survey."