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1 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: Official Chinese PMI drops further in February - Nomura
Nomura economist Zhiwei Zhang notes that the official PMI surprisingly dipped to 50.1 in February from 50.4 in January, weaker than expected (Consensus: 50.5).
He adds that the production sub-index dipped to 51.2 in February from 51.3 in January, new orders fell to 50.1 from 51.6, and new export orders fell further to 47.3 from 48.5. He feels that this contrasts with the jump of the MNI indicator in February (from 55.16 to 60.98), but is consistent with a drop in the HSBC flash PMI (from 52.3 in January to 50.4). Further, Zhang writes, “The results from business surveys may have been distorted by the lunar new year effect, so we will wait for macro data released on 9 March for a clearer picture of the economic pulse. However, the weak official PMI in January and February has cast some more doubt on the strength of the recovery.”
He adds that the production sub-index dipped to 51.2 in February from 51.3 in January, new orders fell to 50.1 from 51.6, and new export orders fell further to 47.3 from 48.5. He feels that this contrasts with the jump of the MNI indicator in February (from 55.16 to 60.98), but is consistent with a drop in the HSBC flash PMI (from 52.3 in January to 50.4). Further, Zhang writes, “The results from business surveys may have been distorted by the lunar new year effect, so we will wait for macro data released on 9 March for a clearer picture of the economic pulse. However, the weak official PMI in January and February has cast some more doubt on the strength of the recovery.”