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9 Feb 2016

USD/JPY: On the verge of confirming a broad Head & Shoulder pattern – SocGen

Stéphanie Aymes, Head of Technical Analysis at Societe Generale, notes that the USD/JPY achieved last year the tipping point of 126.00 at the end of the sustained up trend from 2012 lows.

Key Quotes

“In the process, the pair traced a massive ABC formation since 1995 lows (Elliot Waves principles) with up-moves each lasting three years, developing within a steep bullish channel and falling through at the long-term up channel resistance. Historically, JPY has a tendency to reverse in a V-shaped formation which is this time completed by a Head and Shoulders pattern. Monthly indicator Stochastic has rejected the 20-year resistance then has given a negative crossover hence prompted a compelling long-term bearish signal.

Near term, USD/JPY is now flirting with the critical level of 116.00/115.50 which consists of the confirmation level of the broad Head and Shoulder pattern, which should act as a catalyst once broken (daily close required). The projected target for the pattern is located at 106, also the 38.2% retracement of the 2012-2015. Immediate support stands at 113.80/113.20, the 23.6% retracement and the lower boundary of the down sloping channel within which the pair has been evolving over the past months.”
Feb 9, 2016

Day dominated by continued swings in the markets - Rabobank

Michael Every, Head of Financial Markets Research at Rabobank, suggests that today is likely to be dominated by continued swings in the markets but data-wise we will see German industrial production (seen 0.5% m-o-m) and trade numbers, along with the UK trade report.
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Feb 9, 2016

JPY: Grass roots sentiment deteriorates – Nomura

Research Team at Nomura, suggests that the turmoil on financial markets since beginning of year may have had an impact on the Japanese economy.
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