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8 Oct 2019

USD/MXN extends recovery and rises on top of 19.60

  • Mexican peso drops again versus the US Dollar, remains weak. 
  • USD/MXN back above the 20-SMA and also on top of 19.60, two relevant technical levels. 

The USD/MXN pair rose for the second day in-a-row and and climbed back above the important 20-day moving average. As of writing, trades at the daily high at 19.63, consolidating a gain of almost ten cents. 

A stronger US Dollar against emerging-market currencies boosted the pair to the upside. A deterioration in risk sentiment favored the Greenback and also CHF, JPY and Gold. Wall Street indexes were about to end in negative territory. 

“Expectations for a breakthrough at this week’s trade talks continue to fade as more issues are on the table to be sorted out. The U.S. put eight Chinese tech companies and 20 government entities onto its blacklist and planned to limit U.S. government pension fund investments in Chinese companies. In this context, China said it will retaliate against U.S. decisions", explained BBVA analysts. Trade talks will be held in Washigton but the potential outcome is not clear. 

Also, global growth expectations continue to weigh on market sentiment offsetting expectations of more monetary easing. Also the Brexit turmoil and the tensions between the US and Turkey contribute to the risk-off mood. 

From a technical perspective, USD/MXN changed the short-term bias from bearish to neutral.  Price appears to have found a strong support at 19.50. Now it could be looking for the upper limit of a new consolidation range. On the upside, 19.75/80 is a critical resistance that if broken should lead to more gains. On the flip side, below 19.55 a test of 19.50 might be seen. A close below the last one would signal more losses ahead. 

 

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