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14 Oct 2019

WTI bulls eye a run towards the 200-DMA

  • Bulls penetrate the 21-day moving average on tensions in the middles east and phase 1 trade deal between US and China. 
  • A break of 55.60 will open the prospects of a run towards the 200-DMA located in the 57 handle.

West Texas Intermediate crude prices are firm in the open having penetrated the 21-day moving average following a solid performance at the endo f last week as risk appetite picks up due to the phase 1 trade agreement between the US and China.

WTI spot prices climbed 1.76% by the close of play, having rallied from a low of $53.62 to a high of $54.91, tomark-up a weekly gain of nearly 4%. The news of an explosion on an Iranian tanker also propped up prices as tensions in the Middle East encouraged a spike in the value of oil. Subsequently, WTI for November delivery added $1.15, or 2.2%, to settle at $54.70 at a two-week high - The contract ending 3.6% higher for the week.

Tensions in the region are at a boil

"While tensions in the region are at a boil, markets have discounted little geopolitical risk premium as the perception that the world will soon be flooded with oil is removing any urgency to load up on inventories," analysts at TD Securities explained, noting that the downside momentum signals are still strengthening in crude, with 89% of momentum signals now pointing short while only a 10% of technical analysis signals are suggesting that we are oversold.

WTI levels

A break into the 55 handle and a subsequent test of 50 DMA at 55.60 will open the prospects of a run towards the 200-DMA located in the 57 handle and the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 16th Sep to 3rd Oct lows. On the downside, the Nov 2018 lows at 49.39 are guarding the 46.90 level ahead of the 18th Dec lows down at 45.77 and the Dec double bottom lows below 42.50 on the wide. 

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