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19 Aug 2020

OPEC: The pace of recovery appeared to be slower than anticipated

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee ended its video conference, warning that “the pace of recovery appeared to be slower than anticipated.

OPEC oil producers and allies such as Russia, a grouping dubbed OPEC+, met on Wednesday to review compliance with oil cuts meant to support oil prices amid the coronavirus pandemic.

OPEC+ was always unlikely to change its output policy, which currently calls for reducing output by 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) versus a record high 9.7 million bpd up until this month, according to OPEC+ sources, and report agencies.

The meeting was instead focussed on compliance by countries such as Iraq, Nigeria and Kazakhstan.

Market implications

The headlines emerging are suggesting Saudi Arabia has kept the pressure on countries to comply with the deal.

Considering OPEC's latest revisions to its forecast included a decline in its demand expectations and a substantial increase in supply from the Americas, it is unlikely that the group would revise curtailments any lower,

analysts at TD Securities explained. 

As demand growth continues to normalize into 2021, OPEC+ supply discipline and US shale oil industry weakness all suggest that the existing inventory overhang should erode materially over the next four months and beyond.

A fierce rebalancing should continue to support prices for the time being.

 

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